Core Tip: My macro-economic environment and the economic operation of building materials since March this year, a positive trend for the better, building materials and related investment products demand growth picked up, prices go up again, building materials industry growth rate stabilized stabilized. The current building materials economy downward pressure did not ease the downturn, weak demand has picked up. Building materials prices rise but still low-cost, economic sectors continued to decline.
Implementing No. 34 building materials supply-side structural reforms deepen

--2016 Situation analysis to the structural materials industry in the first quarter

China Building Materials Federation of Information and the Ministry of Economic Operation

State Council recently issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the building materials industry structure adjustment of steady growth increase efficiency" (Guo Ban Fa [2016] No. 34), in order to accelerate the upgrade of the building materials industry restructuring, structural adjustment and steady growth pointed out the direction, provide policy basis. Our macro-economic environment and the economic operation of building materials since March this year, a positive trend for the better, building materials and related investment products demand growth picked up, prices go up again, building material industrial growth rate stabilized stabilized. The current building materials economy downward pressure did not ease the downturn, weak demand has picked up. Building materials prices rise but still low-cost, economic sectors continued to decline. "Guidance" issued, will effectively promote China's building materials industry to the production capacity, fill short board, industry self-regulation and other supply-side structural reforms pace, building materials industry to promote the steady growth pace of structural adjustment increase efficiency.

First, the building materials industry economic operation before this year

1, building materials production growth rate stabilized flattening

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data analysis, the first two months of this year over the scale of the building materials industry sales rose 0.8 percent, the lowest growth rate since the new century. More than a quarter of the size of the building materials industry sales rose 3.2% year on year growth of 1 - February rebounded 2.4 percentage points higher than last year by 0.8 percentage points. January - April, the regulation of building materials sales rose 3.5% year on year growth of 1 - Back up 0.3 percent in March, slowing recovery rate.

Two months ago, the main products in the building materials, cement, plate glass, concrete piles, ceramic tiles, sanitary ceramics, gypsum board and other 10 kinds of products output fell. March, when the monthly building materials main products are showing positive growth year on year, cement, plate glass, ceramic tiles and other products output from the cumulative growth rate of negative growth to positive growth. Into April, the main building materials products production growth trend continued in the first quarter, investment in construction and installation works by the growth of a moderate recovery driven, cement, commercial product mix and other low-yield pick-up at a low level last year; exports of building materials fell by the impact, sanitary ceramics and other products output continued to decline; by the impact of domestic consumption growth highs, plate glass, sheet metal, glass, ceramic tiles, gypsum board and other products output in slow growth.

April on the basis of the national cement output rose in March to achieve further amplified when the monthly production 220 million tons, growth of 7.4% in January - April, the national cement production 660 million tons, an increase of 3.2%, to maintain growth at a reasonable range. 3,4 month in two national cement clinker production are showing positive growth year on year, due to the continued impact of the production of peak load shifting some time ago, the national cement clinker production in the first four months of next year is still down. Suppliers former mixed four-year monthly growth picked up.

April when the monthly national flat glass 62.35 million weight cases, a decline of 3.7% in January - April yield 250 million weight cases, an increase of only 1.7%. Although the cumulative production of ceramic tiles from negative growth to positive growth, a weak rebound, since the second half of last year is still in the downstream channel. The first four months, the national sanitary ceramics production year on year decline.

Composites wind power, extending petrochemical machinery parts manufacturing, especially in recent years to transport equipment manufacturing components extending this year in January - April fiber reinforced plastic production YoY growth rate the highest in the output of major products in the building materials. Steel, laminated, insulating glass production three technologies rise and fall, in January - April three techniques of glass production 210 million square meters, an increase of 5.9%. Marble and granite tile production in January-April grew Fen, gypsum board production grew weak.

2, after the main product prices of building materials in March MoM rise, the price level is still far below the same period last year

The first two months of building materials prices fell 4.2%, equivalent to the price of building materials in early 2009 levels. April building materials prices rose 0.2%, the first rise this year, driven by a 4.5% decrease year on year index narrowed from the first quarter fell to 4.1%. Cement prices rallied since March, the national average cement prices in April rose 2.4%, still below an average of 12.1% over the same period last year, is still at a low price; prices of flat glass production increased influence by March, there slightly down, the national average prices were down 0.5% in the construction industry, the long-term average cost of a glass hovers national average prices. The main building material products, in addition to stone, waterproof material, thermal insulation materials and some non-mineral products, most product prices are still lower than a year ago.

3, the economic benefits of building materials continue to decline

Although the building materials and cement prices rose modestly, but its price level is still very low, hardly enough to drive the economic recovery in the industry. The first four months due to falling prices of building materials industry sales of 60 billion yuan loss, the loss of the growth rate 4.4 percentage points, the growth of building materials is the root cause of slow recovery. More than a quarter of the size of the building materials industry total profit fell 1.2 percent, the cement industry the main business income decline, industry-wide losses. 1-4 months, above-scale building materials industry total profit year on year decline narrowed to 0.3%. Mainly in the building materials industry, in addition to the cement industry-wide losses, glass technology, new wall materials industry profit growth continue to rise beyond, the majority of industry profits year on year, are in decline.

4, building a significant decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data analysis, the second half of last year building materials FAI growth fell below 10%, building materials and investment growth continue to decline significantly this year. More than a quarter of the building materials industry quota fixed asset investment grew by 1.3% year on year growth rate down 12.4 percentage points over the same period last year. January - April building materials industry more than the limit fixed asset investment grew by 2.4% year on year growth rate down 8.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

5, building materials exports continued to decline

Building materials exports dropped significantly this year, a quarter of building materials exports $ 7.6 billion, down 13.4%. January - April exports of $ 10.8 billion building materials, down 7.1% decline narrowed 6.3 percentage points from January to March. Building materials exports decline this year, mainly due to the double impact of the RMB exchange rate depreciation and decline in export prices of building materials. Excluding exchange rate and price changes, the number of building materials, real exports grew by 2.1% over the previous year. January-April of building materials and non-mineral commodity exports FOB prices fell by an average 8.9 percent over the previous year. In addition to asbestos and asbestos products, building and sanitary ceramics, building stone, construction and technical glass, glass fiber and products, cement and cement clinker, cement and other building materials products, major export products FOB prices have different degrees of decline.

This year, exports accounted for nearly half of exports of building materials building and sanitary ceramics, building stone exports, down 4.7% and 7.6% respectively.

Building and technical glass export growth this year, the overall decline in exports of building materials in a bright spot. January - April, construction and technical glass export 1.85 million tons, an increase of 14.5%, of which high-quality float glass exports grew 11.9%, tempered, laminated, insulating glass three techniques exports grew 19.1%, exports grew conductive glass 25.1%.

6, the demand for building materials stabilized, limited recovery rate

⑴ building materials are mild recovery in investment demand growth limited

The first two months the national fixed asset investment growth picked up, a significant recovery in which other investment costs of land acquisition and other growth, the expansion of effective national investment policies effect an early response to the market release of a positive signal. A quarter of the national investment in fixed assets continued to rise, and expand the impact of the construction. Construction and installation of the first quarter increased by 11.7%, of 1 - 1.9 percentage points higher in February. Interpretation of the March national iron and steel, cement, concrete production and sales growth picked up in terms of demand for investment reasons. January - April, the National Investment Construction Engineering grew 11.8%, only of 1 - 0.1 percent rise in March. The current growth rate of the National Investment Construction Engineering, Construction Engineering driven by an increase of about 4 trillion yuan, while in the past year more than 20% growth rate, driven by increased investment in construction and installation in more than 5 trillion yuan, investment demand for building materials the absolute increase in the amount of shrinkage. This year and the "Thirteen Five" Building Investment demand will be steady growth period, it is impossible to reproduce past growth.

⑵ export of building materials building materials industry growth in the number of driving action has disappeared

Building and sanitary ceramics and building stone exports accounted for more than 50% of China's total exports of building materials. Since the reform and opening up, China's total exports of ceramic tile has more than 10 billion square meters, total exports of ceramic sanitary 700 million, building stone, total exports 210 million tons. China's building and sanitary ceramics and building stone exports have to limit the number of exports this year, these two products exports decline in the number of driving action of the growth of domestic production of building ceramics and stone the number of health has disappeared. The high-quality float glass, processed glass, glass industry export growth, export structure and building materials show domestic industry supply-side structural adjustment complementary, building materials export promotion industrial restructuring of the supply side, the supply side of the building materials industry restructuring and upgrading and promotion of export products optimization of the structure.

⑶ building materials into the steady growth in consumer demand from high growth

January - April national construction and decoration materials retail sales grew 15.7%, the growth rate fell 3 percentage points higher than last year's level. At present decoration market is still in the growth stage, but by the real estate market impact has been in the past few years, the growth spurt into the low-speed steady growth. This year, the national motor car production continued to rise, car, truck production continued to decline, generators, air pollution control equipment production dropped significantly, but also that the downstream building materials industries into steady growth in consumer demand.

Second, the economic downturn highlights the building materials supply side structural contradictions

34 shows the text of the release of the State Council building materials industry, care and attention, but also shows that the current development of the building materials industry has encountered unprecedented difficulties. No. 34 issued the text so that the building materials industry, the supply-side structural reforms with higher-level regulations to follow, to solve the current problems and long-term problems facing the building materials industry, promote the industry to accelerate the "capacity to make up for shortcomings" pace, promote the industry self-regulation has an important guiding significance.

1, the traditional industry of serious excess capacity is the root cause of the continued downturn in the economic benefits of building materials industry

⑴ overcapacity problem is not fundamentally ease

Since the beginning of this century, cement, flat glass overcapacity contradiction has already begun to highlight, but with the recent growth of our national economy still maintained a rapid growth rate, demand for building materials market is still facing relatively strong during the cement, plate glass industry production capacity is still growing, the problem of excess capacity in the rapid growth of demand under cover, and has been accumulated in the fermentation industry. Since 2014, China's national economy into the "new normal" after the huge contradiction between production capacity and demand growth is slowing sharply between increased supply and demand has long been the accumulation of concentrated outbreak, the market supply and demand imbalance sharply, causing product prices continued to decline and slowing growth in related industries, since in 2014 the average prices of building materials continued to decline, economic operation continued down the root cause.

⑵ building materials prices continued to decline direct result of the economic downturn in the industry.

In the traditional industry of serious excess capacity context, a direct result of the decline of cement, plate glass, concrete, cement products and other building materials prices of major products, building materials and shrinking the macro market environment has also led to other product prices down, so that the whole building materials industry since the end of 2014 for 15 consecutive months of continuous decline in product prices, which led to the building materials industry, the main business income decreased by nearly a billion yuan, becoming the direct cause of the building materials industry in the economy continued downward. Serious overcapacity and shrinking market demand led to lower prices, but also for the industry to excessive competition once again push down prices foreshadowed.

2, the building materials industry, industrial structure differentiation significantly, "fill the short board" arduous task

⑴ excess capacity constraints cement, plate glass benefits rise

Cement, plate glass serious excess capacity so that the two there is a big market supply and demand imbalance is expected, is also a major factor in the price rise of these two constraints, March although cement prices were to rise, but the recovery has been noticeable lack of power. The current national average price of cement is not only far below the best level in history, but also below the level of last year, flat glass prices last year have stabilized flattening, but more than a year to continue in the industry breakeven line wandering. To productivity and industry self-regulation does not solve the problem, cement, flat glass industry economic rebound hopeless.

⑵ building and sanitary ceramics, building stone industry economic downturn in the downstream channel

Falling domestic consumption and export growth declined since last year, resulting in building and sanitary ceramics and stone buildings appeared downstream industry economic situation.

Early last year, building and sanitary ceramics sales revenue grew 11%, profit growth of 16.1% to the end of the ceramic tile production negative growth, sales growth dropped sharply to 3.8%, the annual profit growth of just 1%. By pressure on energy conservation and the impact of the decline in exports this year, the main producing areas of ceramics production decline. Ceramic tile production in the first quarter increased by only 0.6%, sanitary ceramic products fell 2.6% in the first quarter, industry sales rose 1.8%, down 6.2 percentage points year on year growth, profit growth fell 2.7 percentage points.

Stone is one of the best industry for more than last year, the size of the building materials industry performance. Last year and early this year, above-scale building stone industry output, sales continued to maintain an upward trend. March stone prices, season of industry profits rose only 3.4%, down 6 percentage points from last year's level. 25000 stone industry enterprises, corporate sales under Regulation 20 per cent. This year, the stone business regulations to increase more than 300 homes, the new regulation on support outstanding enterprises stone industry regulations on production, sales growth. From the analysis and judgment of the whole industry, exports dropped significantly, and lack of domestic consumption, the stone industry in the economy also fell downlink channel.

⑶ new industry low-end surplus of homogeneous products, prices, benefits decline

This year, the mineral fiber and fiber-reinforced plastics prices fell 1.3% year on year profit growth rate down 9.8 percentage points; lightweight building materials prices fell 2.4%, the profit growth rate down 13.1 percentage points, heat insulation material price lows, profit growth still down 16.9 percent. Building materials and development of new industries to repeat the traditional process of industrial development ills, the rise of business rush, low, homogeneous products, the market chaos. In the absence of sufficient demand, the low end of the homogenization of products, excess capacity, falling product prices, efficiency of the sector down. The current new building materials industry in the proportion is still small, difficult period of time for the building materials industry to increase support.

⑷ building materials organizational structure optimization has become the main driver of this year, growth picked up in the building materials industry

From the National Bureau of Statistics data analysis, this year the number of regulations on building materials companies continue to increase. Business regulations on cement, plate glass, asbestos cement, building ceramics, glass, mica products and other traditional industries to reduce the more than 100 companies on the regulation of concrete, stone, brick, lightweight building materials, glass processing industry increased by nearly 2000. Regulations on enterprises to increase the number of firms in many industries under industry, all rules, regulations on the business behind the increase is the shrinking number of companies under the regulation. New regulations on business mostly growth enterprises, thus pushing up the growth rate of building materials and regulate mitigation benefits decline of about 1 percentage point, to become the main driver of growth in the building materials industry.

3, building materials and fixed asset investment tends to stagnation, continued to grow steadily shrinking support force

According to the National Bureau of Statistics last year, the building materials industry more than the limit fixed asset investment data analysis, cement, plate glass investment continued to decline, building and sanitary ceramics tend to zero growth in investment, technical glass, noise insulation material negative growth in investment, the annual investment of over 100 billion yuan concrete and cement products, building stone, brick blocks, new wall roofing materials and other building materials industries occupy the top four investment. In addition, building materials, investment in fixed assets, collective, private and individual enterprises, domestic investment accounted for 95%. Since late last year building materials, fixed asset investment growth continued to fall, the building materials appear private investment this year of negative growth, indicating that the first four months of this year, investment in building materials and weak growth rate of 2%, or rely on state-owned and foreign investment growth barely support. Since last year, the building materials industry investment in fixed assets, regardless of traditional industries, extend the industrial chain, the emerging industry investment decline or stagnation, will rise building materials industry growth rate this year, more than the size of generated constraints.

4, the supply-side structural reforms to promote the benefits of building materials is a fundamental recovery, strengthen self-discipline should be the primary task of solving the problem

March building materials industry growth rate rebounded, ending the building materials industry growth rate continued to decline in the trend since 2014. The current building materials limited investment demand has picked up a moderate export demand continued to decline, falling consumer demand growth, we decided in March building materials industry growth inflection point, from the low-speed continued to drop to smooth the turning point, not a turning point towards recovery. January - April only building materials industry growth rate of 1 - weak back up 0.3 percentage points from March, indicating that the building materials industry growth rate this year will be only between 3-4% low-speed taxiing. The "capacity to make up the short board" to promote the building materials industry supply-side structural reforms is the fundamental way to the building materials industry growth, but also long-term task facing the building materials industry. But should also take into account the moment, in the current slow recovery in demand, overcapacity serious, product prices continued downturn, strengthen self-discipline, prompting the return to a reasonable price range as soon as possible to promote economic recovery in the industry as the current building materials industry should be resolved in the first the problem is not only an objective need steady growth of the industry, but also for the building materials industry restructuring to build a relatively stable environment.